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Sunday, 20 July 2008

The many unanswered questions about the long-term sustainability of Malawi's successful fertiliser subsidy

Malawi has achieved bumper maize harvests three years in a row after instituting a subsidy program for fertiliser and hybrid seed. There has been an excited buzz in agricultural, economic and developmental circles about just what the right take-home lessons are of this experiment.

In just a few years Malawi has gone from being dependent on donor handouts of its staple crop to being self-sufficient and even exporting surplus to neighbouring countries like Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

One of the factors about this remarkable development is that Malawi embarked on the subsidy program with its own funds rather with loans or donor funds. The multilateral and bilateral donors on which the country is dependent on for a good part of its budget advised against the idea of subsidies. During the years of the “Washington consensus” the IMF, World Bank and Western ‘donor governments’ in general held that the solution to many developmental problems lay in the development of a strong private sector rather than in government intervention.

The ideology was that governments should withdraw out of many areas they were involved in so that the private sector could have a chance to develop and provide those goods and services more efficiently, while also producing widespread downstream economic growth. The supply of inputs and various other agricultural services were two areas that many African countries were arm-twisted to reduce support for in order for them to continue to benefit from credit and other assistance from various Western governments and financial institutions.

Unfortunately, the divestiture of governments from key areas like agriculture did not cause the more efficient flooding in of the private sector, for many reasons. Extension services suffered, fertiliser and other inputs became harder to get and much more expensive. Already low agricultural production in many countries declined even further, a situation which was compounded by factors like drought.

In Malawi this caused famine in 2005, causing President Bingu wa Mutharika to swear that his country would not again bear the indignity of begging for food. Hence the government’s decision to throw out the conventional wisdom of the Western experts and fund its own massive fertilizer and maize seed subsidy program. Fortunately the program has coincided with years of excellent rain, bringing about the bumper harvest that Malawi can be justifiably proud of. Many analysts from all over the world are keenly studying the implications of Malawi’s so-far successful experiment, and many governments seek to emulate this unfortunately unusual example of African agricultural success at the national level.

But amidst all the excitement are many questions about the sustainability of the subsidy model for Malawi or any other country. Some caution that it is only useful as a temporary measure, and that more complicated long-term interventions and investments need to be made to ensure long-term food security for Malawi or any other nation.

Among the many questions to be asked:

Can Malawi sustain these subsidies in the face of the increasing demand for them that is partly fuelled by the initial success? Fertilizer prices worldwide have increased by unprecedented, enormous proportions to record highs in the last year. They are now generally over US$1000 per tonne, a more than three-fold increase in little more than a year. There are no indications that this trend will stop soon. Fertiliser is a fossil-fuel byproduct, and the price of oil is creeping towards an unheard of US$150 per barrel, with worse to come. Apart from the price of oil as a fertilizer raw material, there is also the escalating expense of shipping it. When you add the many middle men and speculators in the supply chain, not to mention the bribery that is an unfortunate part of fertiliser tendering the world over, one gets an idea of just how expensive it is going to become to get the product in the hands of the African farmer.

Fertiliser has long been considered the single most expensive 'input' in farming, and this was even before the recent dramatic price increases. Its expense is the main reason it has been out of reach of African farmers.

So is the Malawian government not entrapping itself into a situation where it would not be politically tenable to abandon the subsidy even when it become unaffordable, even if it is no longer working as it should for one or another reason?

Given the foregoing, is the subsidy a short-term measure leading up to other strategies, or is it open-ended? What are the implications of either? There is little sign that these issues are being seriously discussed.

What went wrong with previous efforts to subsidise fertilizer in Malawi and elsewhere? Have steps been taken to prevent the recurrence of such problems?

Fertilizer addresses the symptoms of the problem of low soil fertility, not the underlying causes of the problems (poor/wrong and over-use of soils). Without somehow at least partially addressing the issue of inherent degradation of the soils, one needs higher amounts of fertilizer every season to produce the same yield of crop. The costs are not only financial, but there is the issue of the poisoning of the soil and water that is an inevitable part of fertilizer use. Is this being considered and strategized for? If not, why not? If so, how?

How much are Malawi’s recent maize bumper harvests really due to fertilizer anyway? 100%, 70%, 40%, 10%? Obviously there is no easy way to quantify this, although that hasn’t stopped some from trying. But in short, some say the subsidy has just happened to coincide with a cycle of particularly good rains in that region of Africa.

When the expected drought cycles come (which partly contributed to previous famines) no amount of fertilizer will make much difference, and fertilizer on parched soils can actually scorch plants, causing even lower than expected yields. Climate predictions are that sub-Saharan countries like Malawi should expect more seasons of low rainfall than of the current heavy rainfalls, and that the model of heavy reliance on fertilizer is precisely the wrong way to prepare for this.

“Natural” means of enhancing soil fertility, while a lot of work initially, end up giving the soil more drought-tolerance by enhancing its moisture-retention qualities, etc. At the very least, fertilizer use should be an adjunct to enhancing soil fertility by improving its inherent structure. It should not become a sole strategy as is becoming the case, setting the country up for dramatic failure if the precise mix of good rainfall and widely available fertilizer is not available. Is this part of the debate at all in Malawi?

Is the subsidy not indeed hurting the potential for the development of an agro-related private sector, as the WB argues? It is said that instead of just being availed to poor farmers who could not afford it on their own, even well to-do farmers see no point in buying a commodity that there is now the possibility of getting at a fraction of its market price, even though in theory these farmers should not qualify for the subsidised fertilizer. This has led to many allegations of all sorts of corruption, and it has definitely hurt private fertilizer importers/vendors. What are the implications of all this in the long term?Is the development of a private sector not also important? If so, how can that take place inan environment where government intervention through subsidies makes fertiliser and other inputs available at below-market prices?

I have merely scratched the surface of this topic and the many questions that need to be carefully pondered to make Malawi's example partof a long-term trend, rather than just a flash in the pan. Here is a list of some useful further reading on an important subject for African agriculture that deserves close scrutiny over the years:

1.Fertilizer subsidy boosts Malawi maize yields but questions remain

2.How IMF-World Bank structural adjustment programs destroyed African agriculture

3.Malawi bumper harvests due to more than just fertilizer subsidy

4.Caution urged on Malawi fertilizer subsidies despite bumper harvests

5.Required: A new agriculture for a new Africa

6.Africa reconsidering agricultural subsidies

Understandbly, a lot has been said and written about the positive development of the record harvests. They are a wonderful example of an African country taking charge of its own agricultural affairs. Then there is the powerful symbolism of an African country being so committed to a well-thought out path of economic intervention that it is willing to dig deep into its own treasury to fund a program it believes in, even at the risk of angering the purportedly all-knowing foreign experts and donors.

Malawi's successful example, therefore, is important for more than just the agricultural and economic reasons, although their importance are obviously also considerable. But all these reasons why Malawi's feat is of such huge symbolic importance to Africa are precisely why tough questions should be asked about the long term. Appropriate modifications can then be made to ensure that this development does not end up in failure when one or another critical element of its success is suddenly missing. If the right lessons are learned and appropriate adjustments made, Malawi may indeed blaze a unique trail to agricultural development for other countries to emulate.

Bicycles not always for recreational use;

Bicycles and bicyclists are increasingly in the forefront of charity events and are enjoying widespread success in raising funds for diverse causes.

The association between cycling and charity events makes sense in many ways. Cycling is viewed as green and active, providing participants the secondary benefits of carbon-free exercise and health improvements while helping a good cause.

Participation is available to everyone. Many who cycle can't participate in a run, hula-hoop-a-thon, hike, or other more strenuous activities. It's great for the cycling community, too, as you've seen in The Standard.

Worthwhile causes such as the Ride to Conquer Cancer or the Great Waterfront Trail Adventure Tour net positive local media coverage.

A commonality in many of these events, however, is that the bicycle is used to fundraise for non-cycling causes. In the Ride for Africycle 2.0, passing through Niagara July 23 and 24, the potential of the bicycle itself is the key. The ride will be led to Niagara by former St. Catharines resident Michael VanDerHerberg.

In our car-driven society, we take home visits by a public health nurse for granted. In business, free delivery is an accepted perk. If we want to visit friends or family, we hop in the car. What if your total enterprise and health were determined by how far you could walk in a day? This is the situation for millions of Africans, making an affordable bicycle life-altering.

Africycle, founded by Ted Webb of Uxbridge, began as the Malawi Bike Project. Malawi is a southeast African country where 90 per cent of the population works at subsistence agriculture, and the national GDP is $596 a person. On a 2004 building project in Malawi, Webb saw the impact bicycles could have in improving quality of life. He returned later that year with a seven-metre container of refurbished bicycles he distributed to community and trade workers.

By 2006, the vision of Africycle had formed and young friends Ben Voss and Mike Siddall joined. The Africycle founders understood there was more to be achieved than just distributing free bicycles and realized that without supporting services, the venture was not sustainable. They envisioned a bicycle shop that would recondition the donated bikes in Africa and sell them locally at fair market value. The Canadians would provide tools, parts and training so Malawians could maintain and repair the bikes and operate independently.

Provision was also made for the Malawi shop to provide subsidized bikes free of charge to the extremely poor.

Profits would stay in Malawi to fund community development -- initially a school for orphans and disabled children. Africycle provides wages for teacher salaries, supplies, and one meal a day for students.

The Africycle dream became reality when a 40-foot container with 450 used Canadian bikes arrived in Zomba, Malawi, in June 2007, accompanied by a similar container equipped as a workshop.

These containers, set seven metres apart on a concrete pad, will comprise the permanent workshop and warehouse for Africycle Malawi. Webb and others spent the summer of 2007 there, training a local administrator, shop manager, and mechanics.

VanDerHerberg and his crew arrive at Shalamar Lake Park in Queenston on the afternoon of July 23, six days into their nine-day fundraising ride around Lake Ontario. The crew will set up displays at Shalamar and they invite everyone to join them and learn about the project.

I asked VanDerHerberg, the fundraising co-ordinator for the ride, how Niagara cyclists might help. He replied that a major cost of the project was shipping the bike containers from Ontario to Malawi and pledges or donations to the ride would go directly to that expense.

When questioned about the need for bicycles and which bikes best suited the shop in Africa, he responded that sturdy mountain bikes and kid-sized bikes went quickly.

Our nearest drop-off site is The Freeway Salvation Army Church at 333 King St. East in Hamilton July 24 when VanDerHerberg and his crew arrive there from Niagara.

Details and contact information are on the sites www.africycle.org and www.rideforafricycle.com. Check it out. Your old bike would love to retire in Africa.

Just in: The Uxbridge Times-Journal named Africyle founder Ted Webb its citizen of the year. Not bad for a 22-year-old.

The Great Green Fuel Conversion

Malawi has taken up Brazil's lead and is now planning to switch from petrol to ethanol as the main vehicle fuel. Experiments on converting cars to run on this fuel have gone well and greater use of ethanol will be healthy for the economy. But is this campaign too soon and too ambitious? Lameck Masina reports from Blantyre. As the price of crude oil keeps on rising, the Malawi government has embarked on an ambitious drive to ensure that all vehicles in the country switch to the cheaper alternative fuel - ethanol - in a few years' time. Statistics show that the price of oil is 13 times higher than it was a decade ago.

The five-year $lm (Malawi Kwacha 140m) government-funded research project followed a directive from the cabinet that Malawi should explore other sources of fuel for vehicles. Jointly implemented by the Department of Science and Technology and the privately owned Ethanol Company of Malawi (ETHCO), the initiative is investigating the possibility of converting conventional vehicles - that use only petrol - into dualfuel vehicles - 'flexible-fuel' or 'flexfuel' vehicles that use either 100% locally manufactured ethanol, or a combination of ethanol and petrol in a single tank. Local scientists at Lilongwe Technical College (LTC), which falls under the Ministry of Labour and Vocational Training, examined appropriate ethanolfriendly parts to be fitted on the fuel system to convert petrol-fuelled vehicles into ethanol-fuelled ones. The college also conducted road tests with a vehicle running 100% on ethanol and has collected data on the performance of the vehicle during the road tests.

The researchers experimented on a Mitsubishi Pajero to determine the effectiveness and efficiency of ethanol-driven vehicles. The experiment had already started showing success.

The first test-drive was conducted in December 2006 when the ethanol driven Pajero covered a distance of about 350km from the capital Lilongwe to the northern city of Mzuzu while the second test took the Pajero from the commercial capital Blantyre to the southern district of Chikwawa in September 2007. The vehicle cruised at an average speed of 110km/h on ethanol with consumption at 8km/ litre. Official results had suggested that it was an outstanding technical achievement.

Freeman Kalirani, who leads the research team at the LTC, told African Business that the project is on the right track, "So far I have converted four vehicles. Two vehicles, a Nissan and a Mitsubishi, are running 100% on ethanol and the other two vehicles that are flextype are running on either petrol or ethanol or any mixtures of the two," he said.

He said that by May 2008, the Pajero had covered 18,000km and that no major component has been damaged in the engine. "I am happy to tell you that the vehicle performed far beyond our expectations. The tests have been very successful in that the vehicle managed to cover the set distances without any problems at all."

Kalirani said the research team would continue comparing the engine performance of ethanolpowered and petrol-driven vehicles to test and check on the long-term effects of ethanol on the fuel system of vehicles. He said the team would also gather data on the performance of a flex vehicle and build capacity for Malawians to maintain ethanol-driven or flex vehicles.

"What remains now is that we want to travel a little longer to have more kilometres covered so that when we tell the people that ethanol does not damage the engine we should be sure. When you listen to it one can't notice that it is running on ethanol - the only difference is the smell that comes from the exhaust which shows that it is ethanol," he said.

He explained that fuel consumption depends on the speed and age of the car, saying newer vehicles would consume between 10km/ litre and ISkm/litre. Until February 2006, all cars in Malawi used leaded petrol blended with 20% ethanol. Since then, the country has switched to unleaded petrol blended with 10% ethanol. Proponents of ethanol use have argued that continued over-dependence on fossil fuels has economic, social, climate and biodiversity impacts for humans and the entire ecosystem. Malawi's deputy director of the Department of Science and Technology, Kendron Chisale, told reporters in Lilongwe that a switch to ethanol would allow Malawi to comply with procedures aimed at emission reduction, as agreed by parties at the 2006 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Nairobi in November. "This will eventually mitigate climate change related disasters," he said.

Supporters of the project argue that the advantage of using ethanol as a renewable energy source would not only benefit the environment but also provide employment to Malawians in the country's sugarcane industry and save on foreign exchange lost through importation of petroleum products. Mathews Chikaonda, the chief executive officer of Press Corporation, the conglomerate that runs the only two ethanol producing companies in the country ETHCO and Presscane - told a group of local executives that had gathered to witness the second test-drive of a converted Pajero in Blantyre, that the introduction of ethanol-driven vehicles would have greater benefits for the country in the long run.

"Since ethanol is locally produced, the introduction of these cars will induce as a significant reduction in the amount we spend to import fuel. Besides, this will also increase levels of employment. More staff will be required at the refineries, in the transportation of the ethanol and at service stations. I believe it is a venture worth trying," he said.

He singled out Brazil, Malawi's role model in this endeavor, as a shining example of how ethanolpropelled cars have helped improve the economy.

Meanwhile the department of Science and Technology, in partnership with ETHCO, is promoting the importation of Brazilian 'flex-fuel' vehicles that can run on ethanol, thus the imminent introduction of ethanol at service stations across the country.

But critics had cautioned against over-enthusiasm, calling for continued research on how vehicles previously propelled by petrol can best be modified to use ethanol. They also warned that huge investments in production and installation of additional pumps would be required to make ethanol fuel available throughout the country.

Car owners received the development with caution. "Although it's a welcome development, it is too early to start celebrating. Let us be honest with ourselves and answer questions such as, 'are we ready to meet the demand once we abandon imported fuels?'An honest answer would be 'no' at this point in time," said a car owner in Blantyre.

A Mitsubishi Pajero was one of the cars taking part in Malawi's experimental bio-fuel programmes.

Ethanol production

Boost for sugarcane production

Following the apparently successful research project into switching vehicle fuel from expensive petrol to the far more affordable, and green, ethanol, the government now faces a critical challenge to expand its sugarcane production.

Malawi produces ethanol from sugar molasses at Dwangwa, In the central region lakeshore district of Nkhota-kota and Nchalo in southern district of Chikwawa.

Malawi has only two ethanol producing companies, Ethanol Company of Malawi (ETHCO) and Presscane Limited, both run by a private local conglomerate Press Corporation. Each of the factories has a capacity of producing 16m litres of ethanol a year.

However a new report says that the current total production level of ethanol by both companies is about 17.8m litres. ETHCO produces 7m litres of ethanol a year at its plant in Nkhota-kota, a town in central Malawi, while Presscane delivers 10.8m litres, from its plant in Chikwawa in southern Malawi.

The report says the production of ethanol is constrained by the low availability of molasses, a by-product of making sugar. But both companies have disputed this saying they have enough molasses for ethanol production at the moment. However the report adds that despite the decline in production, the current production levels signify that "Malawi has excess ethanol, which can be used locally as fuel In motor vehicles".

Meanwhile ETHCO had been providing all the ethanol that had been used for the ethanol-driven vehicles' experiments under its Biofuels Research Project free of charge. The gesture had been hailed as a good African example of public-private sector collaboration.

Chief executive officer of the Press Corporation, Matthews Chikaonda said there was a possibility that the two factories could produce ethanol at full capacity because there was room for expansion In existing sugarcane plantations at Dwangwa, Nchalo and Kaslnthula. But commentators expressed fears that this homegrown solution to rising fuel prices would come at another cost - such as the rise in food prices as a result of increased pressure on land.

Malawi has been using ethanol-blended fuel since the energy crisis in the early 1970s. Petroleum companies such as British Petroleum (BP) Malawi, Total Malawi and Chevron Malawi blend 10% ethanol with 90% petrol. Some ethanol is used for industrial purposes, such as in pharmaceutical;.

Economists say a switch to ethanol would also help Malawi save forex currently being spent on fuel imports. Statistics shows that between 1995 and 2000, Malawi imported around SOm to 90m litres of petrol each year, with the cost rising from J13m to $36.1m over the same period. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation had said in the first half of the year that a barrel of bioethanol In Brazil was half the price of a barrel of oil. The current price of crude oil is about $135 a barrel.

An ethanol industry would save the country millions in forex by reducing its fuel import bill.

Local couple offers gift to generous Malawians

In one of the poorest nations on Earth, Ken and Sylvia Gentili have had some of the most personally enriching experiences of their lives.

The Gentilis, both retired educators from University Place, traveled to the southern African nation of Malawi last year for a 21/2-month stay from August to mid-October. Ken recently returned from a second six-week trip there, arriving home in early June.

They traveled at their own expense, paying the $2,300 per person round-trip air fares. They traveled because “we love to travel,” Sylvia said. More significantly, they traveled because “while Ken wasn’t teaching classes anymore he still felt he had something to share,” she said. She felt the same way.

In partnership with the University of Livingstonia in northern Malawi, the couple taught Malawian teachers techniques to help them become more effective in the classroom.

A former British protectorate bordered by Zambia, Tanzania and Mozambique, Malawi uses a British teaching method in which students are taught by rote repetition of facts gleaned from textbooks and lectures. Ken, 67, who taught physics and engineering at Tacoma Community College for 38 years, did training in what Sylvia calls “participatory learning,” which encourages students to think for themselves rather than parrot back what they’ve been told.

Ken’s students were studying to become high school teachers. Sylvia, 66, a specialist in early childhood education who was on the faculty of Bates Technical College for 27 years, worked with preschool and primary school teachers to instruct them in similar techniques aimed at getting students more interested and involved in their lessons.

Conditions were primitive. Incomes in Malawi are low, and most of the residents are subsistence farmers, Sylvia said.

A preschool class she observed met in a chapel where there were no chairs for the children. They had to sit on the brick floor.

“There weren’t any pictures on the wall. There were no toys to play with. There were no books to read,” she said.

In a first-grade class she worked with, students used bottle caps they found to help them learn to add and subtract.

Last year’s trip was not the first time Ken had been to Africa. In the late ’60s he worked in Ethiopia as a member of the Peace Corps. In the decades since, he often thought about returning to the continent. “I wanted to see what had happened 40 years later,” he said. Last year he finally got his chance.

The chance came through the Fircrest Presbyterian Church where the couple worship. They learned that the Presbytery of Olympia, the denomination’s umbrella organization for churches in this area, had entered into a partnership with the Presbyterian Synod of Livingstonia, a city in northern Malawi.

In 2003, the synod founded the University of Livingstonia, the only private university in Malawi, with help from Henry Kirk, the recently retired president of Centralia College, and his wife, Jenny Seldon Kirk.

The Kirks belong to the Westminster Presbyterian Church in Chehalis. When Ken mentioned to an official at his Fircrest church that he wanted to revisit Africa, the official suggested he contact the Kirks. The two couples met, and it wasn’t long before the Kirks talked the Gentilis into going to Livingstonia to teach new instruction methods to faculty and students at the university’s College of Education.

When they arrived, the Gentilis were captivated by the land and its people. Livingstonia, with a population of about 6,700, is named after 19th-century missionary and explorer David Livingston, whose explorations took him to the area.

At 4,500 feet above sea level, Livingstonia’s climate is mild with temperatures ranging from around 65 to 85 degrees year-round. Ken said the landscape is reminiscent of New England with its mountains and its leafy trees. He calls it “a beautiful paradise plateau.”

The people are as hospitable as the climate, Ken said. “Malawians are known as the warm hearts of Africa.”

They’re outgoing and “very good about sharing,” Sylvia said. “Even when they don’t have anything to share, they still find a way to help one another.”

Ken recalled an evening when a choral group came to give a concert in Livingstonia and complained about the amount of diesel fuel used driving up the steep, narrow switchback to get to the city.

“So Malawians, true to their hearts, went out in the middle of the night and came back in the midst of the festivities with 20 liters of diesel fuel to get them back home. Mind you, the nearest fueling station was three hours (and 75 miles) away,” he said.

Soren Andersen: 253-597-8660

INSPIRING OTHERS

Since returning from their first visit to Malawi in 2007, Ken and Sylvia Gentili have given more than two dozen presentations to church and civic groups discussing their work. And as they’ve spread the word, other people from around the Puget Sound area have come forward to donate time and materials to improve life in Livingstonia.

• Even before they left on that first visit, Daniel Heath, a professor of mathematics at Pacific Lutheran University, donated two microscopes and a telescope for the couple to take with them to Livingstonia. “Students had never seen a microscope and had never worked with one before and they were quite excited,” Sylvia said.

• A friend of the couple, Marilouise Petersen, a retired director of human resources with the Sumner School District, decided to go to Malawi herself after hearing them talk about their work there. She’s currently in Livingstonia teaching leadership skills to staff and faculty at the university, Sylvia said.

• Area Girl Scout troops are collecting sewing and school supplies to send to the nation, and the Scouts and other organizations are holding fund-raisers to buy textbooks and school supplies.

• Ken is working with a Denver-based organization named Water for People that is developing a $700,000 project with Rotary International to build a pipeline system to serve some 15,000 people living in 10 villages in the Livingstonia area.

• Ken also is working to get Internet service by satellite to the remote community, which does not have any online access.